Two of the big stories of 2012 was the year-end tallies of the citywide homicide rates of two of America's biggest cities - New York and Chicago. In the former, the Big Apple saw a 50-year record low of just over 400 murders in a city of over 8 million; while for Chicago, the murder rate topped 500, with a population of roughly 2.5 million. Much has been said about the differences between the two cities in terms of their approaches toward fighting crime - in the former, the Rudy-era approaches, like the Broken Windows Theory and Compstat, along with Bloomberg-era "stop-and-frisk" measures, have been widely credited with bringing down crime levels, while in Chicago it is all the CPD can do to keep their heads above water, as its streets, particularly on its South and West sides - the Blackest parts of the city - are awash in blood. What's perhaps most interesting in comparing the differentials of the cities along crime and homicide lines, is the fact that Chicago has a proportionately larger police force than does NYC.
With President Obama going on the offensive to get a handle on violent gun crime in the nation, we must ask: are there any other factors that could possibly account for the drastic fall in homicide in NYC, compared to Chicago? Your correspondent actually does think so - and it is this:
There are more Women to Men in NYC, than in Chicago.
Over the past few decades, NYC has become a major destination for young ladies to come and seek their career fortunes, in large part because the city's become so very safe over that same timeframe; numerous cable and network tv shows and movies are made about this, all with the attendant frustrations on the part of their female protagonists to find the "right" guy. Of course, this is directly due to the skewed sex ratio, which actually worked (and continues to work, to be frank) against Women in NYC - as there are more Women to Men there, Men can afford to be much more selective, and most importantly, are much better able to engage in the kind of mating they tend to prefer, which is of the casual, short term variety.
The upshot to this though, is that NYC has become a heck of a lot less violent as a result.
Now let's consider the Chi. I don't have any hard data to go on (calling all Quants, calling all Quants...), but just knowing what I do about EvoPsych and Human Sociosexual Dynamics, my gut is telling me that there are more Black Men in the 18-30 cohort than there are to Black Women of the same age cohort there - and that this, as much (if not more) as anything else, is what is driving the murder rate. After all, it's been long known that whenever there are more males to females anywhere, trouble ensues. Indeed, we are beginning to see this manifest itself in earnest in places like China and India, where the male to female sex ratio is so off the chain that extreme exhibitions of behavior are being seen on the part of the males; here at home, we see this playing itself out in the heartland of the country, as oil workers literally try to carry the relatively few young and desirable Women back home with them.
Law enforcement officials have long known that things like sex ratios drive murder rates, especially among any given city's poorer sections, where the most violent offenders are to be found. We also know, that said offenders tend to be male, and young - late teens through late 20s - their prime reproductive years where competition to get access to the most desirable females is highest. Men with little in the way to offer in terms of resources, social status or GAME, are the ones most likely to go to the gun in order to get what they want. This is common and seen in just about any inner city environment, for example.
As Prof. David Buss recently put it - and very candidly at that - the simple truth is, that there always has been, and always will be, a shortage of desirable mates, male and female both. Worse, when it comes to Women, there will always be a shortage of young, desirable Women (say, between 18-30) who are sought after not just by the Men of their same age cohort, but by Men of older cohorts who of course, tend to have resources, social status, GAME or a combination of the three, along with sexual experience (Preselection, Social Proof) to offer and bring to bear when they come calling, and which can and often does, knock the youngbucks out the frame. When this inherent asymmetry is further burdened by forces such as those that obtain in inner city environments like Chicago, we can then reliably expect there to be blood, as such extreme sex ratios have proven themselves to be dangerous not only for other Men who are natural competitors in such a highly charged environment, but for Women themselves, as again, the Jezebel story clearly illustrates.
My theory is that the sex ratio of Chicago's Black sections in the 18-30 cohort, is highly skewed - enough to cause real problems. And if my guess is right, it will suggest that it will take more than more police (of which there are already many - more there than in NYC proportionately) and "law & order" to cool things down there. It will take an influx of Women, and real efforts aimed at making the Black Men there "mate material" along the lines Black Women desire. In a very real sense, NYC has achieved this, whether it knows it or not.
More to come on all of this - count on it.
Now adjourn your arses...