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Wednesday, January 16th 2013

6:22 PM

What's The Big Difference Between NYC & Chitown's Homicide Rates? The Sex Ratio Of Men To Women

Two of the big stories of 2012 was the year-end tallies of the citywide homicide rates of two of America's biggest cities - New York and Chicago. In the former, the Big Apple saw a 50-year record low of just over 400 murders in a city of over 8 million; while for Chicago, the murder rate topped 500, with a population of roughly 2.5 million. Much has been said about the differences between the two cities in terms of their approaches toward fighting crime - in the former, the Rudy-era approaches, like the Broken Windows Theory and Compstat, along with Bloomberg-era "stop-and-frisk" measures, have been widely credited with bringing down crime levels, while in Chicago it is all the CPD can do to keep their heads above water, as its streets, particularly on its South and West sides - the Blackest parts of the city - are awash in blood. What's perhaps most interesting in comparing the differentials of the cities along crime and homicide lines, is the fact that Chicago has a proportionately larger police force than does NYC. 

With President Obama going on the offensive to get a handle on violent gun crime in the nation, we must ask: are there any other factors that could possibly account for the drastic fall in homicide in NYC, compared to Chicago? Your correspondent actually does think so - and it is this:

There are more Women to Men in NYC, than in Chicago. 

Over the past few decades, NYC has become a major destination for young ladies to come and seek their career fortunes, in large part because the city's become so very safe over that same timeframe; numerous cable and network tv shows and movies are made about this, all with the attendant frustrations on the part of their female protagonists to find the "right" guy. Of course, this is directly due to the skewed sex ratio, which actually worked (and continues to work, to be frank) against Women in NYC - as there are more Women to Men there, Men can afford to be much more selective, and most importantly, are much better able to engage in the kind of mating they tend to prefer, which is of the casual, short term variety. 

The upshot to this though, is that NYC has become a heck of a lot less violent as a result. 

Now let's consider the Chi. I don't have any hard data to go on (calling all Quants, calling all Quants...), but just knowing what I do about EvoPsych and Human Sociosexual Dynamics, my gut is telling me that there are more Black Men in the 18-30 cohort than there are to Black Women of the same age cohort there - and that this, as much (if not more) as anything else, is what is driving the murder rate. After all, it's been long known that whenever there are more males to females anywhere, trouble ensues. Indeed, we are beginning to see this manifest itself in earnest in places like China and India, where the male to female sex ratio is so off the chain that extreme exhibitions of behavior are being seen on the part of the males; here at home, we see this playing itself out in the heartland of the country, as oil workers literally try to carry the relatively few young and desirable Women back home with them. 

Law enforcement officials have long known that things like sex ratios drive murder rates, especially among any given city's poorer sections, where the most violent offenders are to be found. We also know, that said offenders tend to be male, and young - late teens through late 20s - their prime reproductive years where competition to get access to the most desirable females is highest. Men with little in the way to offer in terms of resources, social status or GAME, are the ones most likely to go to the gun in order to get what they want. This is common and seen in just about any inner city environment, for example. 

As Prof. David Buss recently put it - and very candidly at that - the simple truth is, that there always has been, and always will be, a shortage of desirable mates, male and female both. Worse, when it comes to Women, there will always be a shortage of young, desirable Women (say, between 18-30) who are sought after not just by the Men of their same age cohort, but by Men of older cohorts who of course, tend to have resources, social status, GAME or a combination of the three, along with sexual experience (Preselection, Social Proof) to offer and bring to bear when they come calling, and which can and often does, knock the youngbucks out the frame. When this inherent asymmetry is further burdened by forces such as those that obtain in inner city environments like Chicago, we can then reliably expect there to be blood, as such extreme sex ratios have proven themselves to be dangerous not only for other Men who are natural competitors in such a highly charged environment, but for Women themselves, as again, the Jezebel story clearly illustrates. 

My theory is that the sex ratio of Chicago's Black sections in the 18-30 cohort, is highly skewed - enough to cause real problems. And if my guess is right, it will suggest that it will take more than more police (of which there are already many - more there than in NYC proportionately) and "law & order" to cool things down there. It will take an influx of Women, and real efforts aimed at making the Black Men there "mate material" along the lines Black Women desire. In a very real sense, NYC has achieved this, whether it knows it or not. 

More to come on all of this - count on it.

Now adjourn your arses...

The Obsidian
51 comment(s).

Posted by HanSolo:

Interesting question. In the link that shows the male-to-female ratios in New York, most of Manhattan has more women while the other burrows have move more. So, overall, I don't know if NY has a large difference but in the Sex and the City area there is more women.

Here's a link where someone explains how you can use the US Census data to narrow down by location, age and marital status:


Search for Michael Di Meo's comment. I've looked at the site a bit but haven't dug into it.
Thursday, January 17th 2013 @ 1:57 PM

Posted by MaMu1977:

It's not just the gender disparity, it's the demographic shift. As a native New Yawker who has recently returned home, I'll say this much: finding African-Americans in this city (by "African-Americans", I mean black people of predominantly American descent without Caribbean or culturally African heritage) is becoming more and more difficult to do. I'm not exaggerating at all when I say this. If you aren't within 30 minutes walk (15 minute bus ride) of a housing project, you're as likely to hear a Jamaican, Trinidadian, Nigerian, Ghanaian, etc., as you are to hear a standard AA accent (Northern, Southern, Western or otherwise.)

I'll elaborate on the changes tomorrow.
Thursday, January 17th 2013 @ 10:54 PM

Posted by Y:

This is an interesting theory, but its plausible. Its funny because you always hear the opposite. That there aren't enough black men around
Friday, January 18th 2013 @ 10:59 AM

Posted by Obsidian:

"This is an interesting theory, but its plausible. Its funny because you always hear the opposite. That there aren't enough black men around."

O: Indeed! - and here at the O-Files, we always strive to turn the conventional wisdom on its head. What Sistas don't realize is the many factors that come into play when discussing the "lack of (eligible) Black Men" trope:

1. Cities like NYC, have female to male ratios that are off the chain, and this is especially true for Sistas; this means that it will be much harder for them to get the Brothas to commit in the kinds of relationships they want.

2. As Williston ND proves, merely having a high male to female ratio isn't necessarily something Women find favorable; aside from the inherent potential for violence, there's the little problem of the kinds of guys in these locales - often, they aren't the kinds of guys these ladies want.

Again, I wish I had the means to really dig into the data on all this; but until I do, I think the theory, informed both by EvoPsych and history, will have to do...

Friday, January 18th 2013 @ 12:45 PM

Posted by Obsidian:

Hmm...very interesting. I definitely want to hear more from you on this, as I want to see how you link it to what it is I'm discussing here.

Holla back...

Friday, January 18th 2013 @ 12:47 PM

Posted by Socialkenny:

I doubt that the ration of men to women in Chicago is so disproportionate. But as you said, you weren't quite accurate on data. Nevertheless, your point still stands.

The other ironic correlation I'm seeing is that more women mean less crime. That is definitely true as for America is concerned.
Saturday, January 19th 2013 @ 10:15 AM

Posted by RR:


I think you are way off-base here. Blacks constitute approximately 50% of the population of Washington D.C with a sex ratio of high homicde rate. I haven't been able to find out the sex ratio of Chicago with respect to race, but I seriously doubt that the black sex ratio in Chicago varies significantly from the sex ratio of the black population at large (that is to say that it is probably very low). Even if what you infer is true and black Chicagoans have a high sex ratio,
areas with high sex ratios are usually more stable than those with lower sex ratios. The biggest reason for the upturn in violence in North Dakota is probably much more due to the types of men who choose to migrate to there. Those men are essentially itinerant. Even
given that, the crime rate is still pretty low. Low sex ratio societies are still more crime prone than high sex ratio societies.
Sunday, January 20th 2013 @ 1:00 PM

Posted by RR:

The first line should read:

I think you are way off-base here. Blacks constitute approximately 50% of the population of Washington D.C with a sex ratio of 87.4% and a high homicide rate the lowest of any state) and a Sunday, January 20th 2013 @ 1:02 PM

Posted by MaMu1977:


It isn't complicated, really.

1. Caribbean people have higher rates of in wedlock birth and childrearing than African-Americans (and Africans make the both of us look like a culture of slatterns.) "Father in the home?", is the best predictor for lower crime rates in America, regardless of race. If over 70% of AAs are having OOW children, but Caribbean people are hovering around the 40% mark and Africans are at the 25% mark (counting polygamy, it may be even lower), then an exodus of African-Americans from any area would lead to a drop in crime and vice versa (even *if* the total amount of "African" people in an area remained the same.
Sunday, January 20th 2013 @ 1:23 PM

Posted by MaMu1977:

2. New York City has no problem with deporting foreign nationals who commit crimes, and they'll deport NAMs without thinking (yes, even asylum-seekers and DV claimants.) Tariq Jenkins can offend, re-offend, re-re-offend, and get right back on the block. Lamario Villanueva from Ocho Rios can be sent back to Jamaica on a "possession with intent to distribute" charge, even if it's his first offense and he's been a green card holder since the age of 2. If the crime is violent enough, citizenships have been revoked (there are a few thousand Nigerians and Ghanaians who can tell you about that if you're willing to take the flight to Lagos or Abidjan.) Because of that, the idea of "doing a quick bid upstate" has lost its appeal for foreign blacks. If you were born in Queens, it might cost a few hundred dollars a year for your family to stay in touch. If you were born in Dakar or on the Canal in Panama, you're looking at the same amount of money spent in phone calls (never mind the cost of plane tickets and various gifts that your home relatives will expect from their "rich" relations in America.) Money has it's drawbacks.
Sunday, January 20th 2013 @ 4:21 PM

Posted by MaMu1977:

3. Despite being 1/5 of all black Americans, immigrants and their children make up about half of all of Black America's "high achievers" (from a scholastic standpoint.) Because of this, immigrant children **don't need** to go the "hustler" route to be successful (and even when they're eager to do so, the presence of "Daddy" or "Grandpa" or "Grossemere" in the home keeps them close to the straight and narrow, as immigrant families are also more likely to like in multiple family homes.) My own life works as a testament to this. When I was a child, I couldn't get away with anything (unlike most AAs.) I was placed in advanced classes (unlike some of my AA friends who were kept out by their mothers.) My fellow black classmates were predominantly foreign-born through high school. When college became a certainty, the parents of my foreign-born classmates had little issue with the idea of free university study (unlike the AAs, who pitched a fit if their kids couldn't stay in New York.) So, immigrant kids would often find themselves shuffled through school as minors, then sent to "safer" areas as adults, removing them from the temptation of the streets. Then, when the children return to NYC, they have limited experience on the criminal side of black life (which leads them to indulge on weekends or not at all.) In comparison, AA kids who make it out are bombarded on all ends with the idea of "keeping it real", which leads *them* to embrace (or at least, maintain) some of the stereotypes. In the end, you have one group of people with tangible reasons to look clean (for fear of deportation or worse) and one group of people who have been taught to live it up (or be branded a "sellout". Immigrants can always find a suitable spouse from back home, but AAs can't afford to be too "bougie" if they want to get laid or better.) This is the reason why Atlanta is the new "Black Mecca", it gives black nerds the opportunity for reinvention and it attracts non-nerds who smell easy money.
Sunday, January 20th 2013 @ 5:07 PM

Posted by MaMu1977:

So, the difference in the rates boils down to this: NYC has a much larger pool of "strivers" than Chicago. NYC has a higher profile than Chicago (which attracts more white people and puts an emphasis on officials to try to "uplift" non-whites to meet the SWPL agenda.) Due to a higher immigrant population (black), NYC has a larger core of "SWPL-able" black people (because, "Act right or be deported", hits a lot harder than, "Act right or we'll put you in jail for a little bit and then drop you back into your neighbourhood with 'street cred' and girls who like to fuck guys with 'street cred'.") NYC's "pro-black" population was much lower than Chicago's (so, the percentage of fervently "anti-white values" here was and is lower than Chicago, to include the rejection of "the white man's education" or "the white man's rules." Oh, and did I mention that being the next "50 Cent" or "Don Gargan" in NYC is a guaranteed return to an air-conditioning and First World-level supermarket deficient environment for non-citizens? These things matter. Doing something illegal that will get you deported is one thing; doing something that will get you deported after you've gone through the rigamarole of higher education and actually achieved your slice of the American dream is just...retarded.
Sunday, January 20th 2013 @ 5:29 PM

Posted by RR:

MaMu1977 wrote:

Caribbean people have higher rates of in wedlock birth and childrearing than African-Americans
(and Africans make the both of us look like a culture of slatterns.)

I doubt this. Do you have a link supporting your contention here? We know that the OOW birht rate in many
Caribbean nations is over 50%. It is true that Africans in Africa have relatively low OOW birht rates, but
the structure of marriage is quite different. African men typically invest significantly less in their
wives and children than their Western counterparts do. Many of them are married in name only.

Also, the decrease in crime in NYC is not due just to blacks leaving the city, but from whites moving to the city.
Many of the city's formerly black neighborhoods are gentrifying, and note that it is not West Indians and
Africans who are doing the gentrifying. Heck, even Crown Heights, a once largely West Indian section, is
seeing an influx of whites
and a decrease in crime.
Sunday, January 20th 2013 @ 10:59 PM

Posted by MaMu1977:


Bravejournal ate my other two quotes, and they had some source material inside. Anyway, take it from someone who actually *lives* around immigrants: marriage is kind of a big deal around here. The men marry later and the women marry older, but I can see far more married/divorced couples around here than I've ever seen in or around a housing project.

Also, "African marriages are different than American marriages"? What does that even *mean*? Any dysfunctional activity that can be found in an "African marriage" can be found over here in plenty.

Finally, there wouldn't *be* an influx of white people in Brooklyn if there wasn't a corresponding exodus of black people. All of this brownstones that white people are buying up, they were originally owned by black people. I have relatives who own homes in Brooklyn, who bought them during the white flight, who paid $50K for houses that are now worth $500K. As I said somewhere else: these people are using their homes as their retirement. In Jamaica, you can have an equivalent home built for 10% of the cost of an American house. *That's* the reason why the area is gentrifying so quickly (well, the exodus of educated black New Yorkers to Atlanta helps as well.)
Monday, January 21st 2013 @ 12:13 PM

Posted by RR:


Yeah, I understand you live around immigrants and that your experience is like…real data, but I remain skeptical. If West Indians are so marriage minded, why are their illegitimacy rates in their home countries so high? And if Africans revere the tenets of marriage, why is AIDS so widespread in Africa? You wrote:

Any dysfunctional activity that can be found in an "African marriage" can be found over here.

Well, black Americans don’t yet practice female genital mutilation (but with all the immigration, that is undoubtedly coming) but I agree with your statement, although you are making my point for me. Both black American, Caribbean and African families share an important characteristic: low paternal investment.

All of this brownstones that white people are buying up, they were originally owned by black people.ere in plenty.

But you are overlooking an important fact: most New Yorkers don’t own their homes. This is especially true of black New Yorkers. Most are moving out of New York not because they seek to cash in by selling their homes, but rather because The Rent Is Just Too Damn High!

Young educated blacks are not going to Atlanta anymore. This is especially true of black women (why jump from the frying pan into the fire?) Many are content to remain in New York, assuming they can afford the rent. It is poorer blacks who are moving and even they aren’t moving to Atlanta. They are moving to places like Newark, Orange, East Orange and Irvington in NJ. Or perhaps the Poconos.
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